历史很难在某一特定时刻发生重大变化，即使回顾历史也是如此。2003年的世界扑克锦标赛在拉斯维加斯的马蹄赌场（Binion’s Horseshoe）举办，5月23日是该锦标赛的最后一天，可以相对确信的说，这天在马蹄赌场的绿色桌布上，博彩业世界发生了根本性变化。进入决赛的上一把，菲尔？艾维（Phil Ivey）陷入绝境，这场比赛的参赛者是为250万美元角逐的839名选手中最终胜出的9名选手。当时最精明，最冷酷无情的玩家菲尔？艾维对阵克里斯？莫尼梅克（Chris Moneymaker），后者是来自纳什维尔市的一名27岁的会计。这名新人依靠最后一张牌的好运气，打败了艾维先生。艾维先生，这位板着脸的老玩家，拒绝与战胜他的对手握手。莫尼梅克一路继续，最终赢得锦标赛。

　　他的胜利造成了被称为“莫尼梅克（赚钱人）效应”的结果：对扑克的兴趣骤升。突然之间，在电脑前玩扑克貌似成为致富之道。而且那些财富似乎唾手可得。扑克明星，不像职业运动明星，看起来更像是旁观者；他们只不过碰巧运气更佳。自莫尼梅克胜利之后，这项锦标赛的冠军被专利律师、好莱坞代理人及21岁的职业玩家各色人等获得。

　　过去十年，不仅职业扑克发生了翻天覆地的变化，世界范围内的所有博彩项目均是如此。原因非常简单：人类历史上第一次，想赌博且有互联网连接的人，都能参与赌博。有记录可查的历史上，人类一直有参与赌博的欲望。伊朗东南部一座青铜器时期的古城挖掘出的一对骰子可追溯至5000年前。伊斯兰教禁止赌博，但圣经提及利用抓阄或运气来决定事情的结果。玩扑克赌钱经常在绘画艺术中出现。

　　赌博的广泛传播和持久魅力来源两个方面：一是希望利用世界的基本随机性法则；二是期望获得经济收益（因为赌博确有其魅力）。谴责违背精神的坏结果或者上帝庇佑的好结果比接受冷酷无情的概率更令人兴奋。

　　但赌博有其阴暗面，这点古文明中就已意识到。古印度教3000年前的宗教赞美诗集《梨俱吠陀》中，包含了一首被称为《赌博者之歌》的诗，诗中哀怨“只因为骰子的一个幺点决定败局， 我将我忠实的妻子抛弃，我的妻子远离我，她的母亲憎恶我； 可怜的人儿找不到安慰。 如同一匹骏马日益衰老无力， 我找不到赌徒的任何益处。”

　　正如上面这首最新发现的诗中所写，数字能使大多数形式的赌博变得毫无意义。美国奖金最丰盛的超级百万彩票（Mega Millions），中头奖的几率是1.76亿分之一；西欧九个国家可买到的欧洲大乐透（EuroMillions）几率稍大点：0.76亿分之一；平均来说，轮盘赌玩家需要36-37次才能击中他们选择的数字；扑克玩家发到皇家同花顺的机会，基本上等同于被闪电击中的概率。

　　然而，希望永不破灭。2007年，将近一半的美国人和三分之二的英国人参与了某种形式的赌博。每周销售的彩票数量达数亿张。全球博彩市场美国估计价值3350亿美元。去年，仅拉斯维加斯敛集的赌博收入为104亿美元，澳门为147亿美元。

　　译文：

　　PINPOINTING a precise moment when the world changes is never easy, even in retrospect. Yet it is possible to say with relative confidence that the world of gambling was changed dramatically by events around a green felt table at Binion’s Horseshoe in Las Vegas on May 23rd 2003, the final day of that year’s World Series of Poker （WSOP）。 The hand immediately preceding the final table-the last nine of the tournament’s 839 competitors who would play for $2.5m-pitted Phil Ivey, one of the sharpest and most ruthless players of his time, against Chris Moneymaker, an unknown 27-year-old accountant from Nashville. The newcomer eliminated Mr Ivey thanks to a lucky draw on the last card dealt. Mr Ivey, a stone-faced old-school player, declined to shake his vanquisher’s hand. Mr Moneymaker went on to win the tournament.

　　His victory created what came to be called “the Moneymaker effect”： interest in poker soared. Suddenly spending time playing a game on a computer looked like a road to riches. And those riches seemed attainable. The stars in poker, unlike those in professional sport, look very much like the spectators; they just happen to be more successful. In the years since Mr Moneymaker’s victory, the tournament has variously been won by a patent lawyer, a Hollywood agent and a 21-year-old professional poker player.

　　It is not just professional poker that has changed out of all recognition in the past decade but all forms of gambling worldwide. The reason has been simple: for the first time anyone who wants to gamble and has an internet connection can do so. The desire has been there for much of recorded history. An excavation of a bronze-age city in south-eastern Iran turned up a pair of dice dating back nearly 5,000 years. Islam forbids gambling, but the Bible mentions casting lots or using fortune to determine an outcome. Card-playing for money has often been depicted in art （see detail above of Georges de la Tour’s “The Cheat with the Ace of Diamonds”， circa 1635-40）。

　　enduring appeal comes as much from the hope of imposing order on the fundamental randomness of the world as from the expectation of economic gain （though that certainly has its charms）。 Blaming a bad result on an offended spirit or a good result on divine favour is far more comforting than accepting the cold indifference of probability.

　　But there is a darker side to gambling with which ancient civilisations were also well acquainted. The Rig Veda, a collection of Hindu religious hymns more than 3,000 years old, contains a section known as the Gambler’s Hymn which laments: “Without any fault of hers I have driven my devoted wife away because of a die exceeding by one [an unsuccessful bet]. My mother-in-law hates me; my wife pushes me away. In his defeat the gambler finds none to pity him. No one has use for a gambler, like an aged horse put up for sale.”

　　As the newly single poet above had just discovered, the numbers make most forms of gambling a mug’s game. The odds of winning the jackpot in America’s richest lottery, Mega Millions, is one in 176m. EuroMillions, available to players in nine western European countries, offers slightly better odds: one in 76m. Roulette players, on average, will hit their number once in 36 or 37 attempts. Poker players’ chances of being dealt a royal flush are much the same as being struck by lightning.

　　A majority sportYet hope never dies. In 2007 nearly half of America’s population and over two-thirds of Britain’s bet on something or other. Hundreds of millions of lottery tickets are sold every week. The global gambling market is estimated to be worth around $335 billion a year （see chart 1）。 Last year Las Vegas alone raked in gambling revenues of $10.4 billion and Macau $14.7 billion.