人类的思维很奇妙。思考的过程是认识，能够帮助我们很快的从很多信息找到我们想要的。举例来说，每时每刻你的眼睛是睁着的，你的大脑每时每刻在被大量的信息所刺激。但你能够专心的思想一件事，虽然你的大脑正在处理成千上万的下意识的事情。不幸的是，我们的认识力还不够完美，所以我们很容易犯一些固定模式的错误。众所周知在一些心理学的认识偏见里。这些发生在每个人身上，不会因年龄，性别，教育，智商或其他因素而不同。一些是我们熟知的，但也有些不是，不过很多都很有意思。肯定一些会在我们身边的一些人身上发生（我本人就有好几个），在以后发生的时候我们可以验证一下。

　　赌徒的谬论是指过去发生的事情会影响未来事件的发生，但是事实上，不是这样的。举个例子，当你投一枚正常的硬币时，出现头像的概率总是50%，这些固定的概率不会因为连续出现了10次背面而改变。认为这些会改变是一种常见的偏见，尤其是在赌博的时候。当我在玩赌博轮的时候，最后4个数字全是黑的，那么下次会是红的？错！出现红的概率还是47.37％（18个红区和38个黑区）。这个听起来明显，但是未来会改变的偏见已经让很多赌徒输钱了。

　　译文：

　　Gambler’s FallacyThe human mind is a wonderful thing. Cognition, the act or process of thinking, enables us to process vast amounts of information quickly. For example, every time your eyes are open, you brain is constantly being bombarded with stimuli. You may be consciously thinking about one specific thing, but you brain is processing thousands of subconscious ideas. Unfortunately, our cognition is not perfect, and there are certain judgment errors that we are prone to making, known in the field of psychology as cognitive biases. They happen to everybody regardless of age, gender, education, intelligence, or other factors. Some of them are well known, others not, but all of them are interesting. I am sure everyone will find that one has happened to them, （I myself have been prone to several） and now will recognize when they are making an error in the future.

　　The Gambler’s fallacy is the tendency to think that future probabilities are altered by past events, when in reality, they are not. Certain probabilities, such as getting a heads when you flip a （fair） coin, are always the same. The probability of getting a heads is 50%, it does not matter if you’ve gotten tails the last 10 flips. Thinking that theprobabilities have changed is a common bias, especially when gambling. For example, I am playing roulette. The last four spins have landed on black, it has to be red this time right? Wrong! The probability of landing on red is still 47.37% （18 red spots divided by 38 total spots）。 This may sound obvious, but this bias has caused many a gambler to lose money thinking theprobabilities have changed